Bulls-eye brings a breather

Only a desperate suicide attack on Zionism's

nerve centre shook some sense into Olmert,

reports Khaled Amayreh in Ramallah

As Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, a tacit ceasefire
between Israel and Hamas was holding in the Gaza Strip
for the fifth consecutive day. The informal calm brings to
an end a fortnight of an orgy of murder by the Israeli army,
with over 120 Palestinians killed, including numerous
children and babies, followed by a daring attack by a lone
Palestinian fighter on the ideological headquarters of
religious Zionism, known as Merkaz Harav, in West
Jerusalem, where eight student-settlers were killed
and several others wounded.

The shocking scenes of death and maiming in Gaza last
week, coupled with the equally shocking absence of any
meaningful international condemnation of Israel,
seemed to have convinced Hamas and other Palestinian
resistance factions that it was illogical to ask the world to
stop Israel's deadly attacks on Gazans without halting
rocket attacks originating from Gaza onto nearby Israeli
settlements, especially Sderot and Ashkelon.

These attacks, in which primitive homemade rockets were
used, have killed and injured only a few Israelis and
inflicted minor, even negligible damage.

However, Israel, using a potent propaganda machine
extending from Sydney to California, has utilised them to
the fullest, giving a false impression that Israel was the
victim in its war against the Gazans, and that the totally
unprotected, hermetically blockaded and nearly decimated
Palestinians were the aggressors.

Similarly, the attack on Merkaz Harav, which is viewed
as the central nervous system of the Jewish settlement
movement, shocked the Israeli government, especially
the upper echelons of the political-military establishment.
After all, Merkaz Harav represents the soul of Zionism,
the symbol of Greater Israel and religious messianic
Jewish nationalism.

The attack, carried out by a young Palestinian from
East Jerusalem whose political affiliation remains a
mystery, showed that Israel can't declare open season
on the Palestinians in Gaza and remain immune to
deadly retaliation. It also showed that the conflict between
Israel and the Palestinians can't be decided by military
means alone.

What is significant though is that the attack on Merkaz
Harav was an 11th hour warning to the Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert that the continued onslaught against
Gaza, coupled with threats by some of his cabinet ministers
to carry out a holocaust against the Palestinians, was bound
to boomerang and possibly bring about the collapse of his
government.

Olmert seems to have calculated that though the
increasingly jingoistic Israeli public withstood one
attack, it might not withstand other similar attacks
without taking to the streets and demanding new general
elections that may very well see the victory of Benyamin
Netanyahu, the extremist leader of the Likud Party.

Hence, it is quite possible that Olmert has calculated
that a ceasefire with Hamas, even if undeclared or tacit,
is vital for the political survival of his increasingly
fragile government.

Moreover, according to reliable sources in Ramallah,
the American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice asked
Israel to refrain from carrying out "a retaliation" against
Hamas, as if the killing by Israel of 120 Palestinians in one
week was not enough. Rice reportedly argued that more
Israeli attacks on Gaza would inevitably invite more
Palestinian retaliation, which could very well lead to the
collapse of the Olmert government and with it the likely
collapse of all American efforts to reach a final political
settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict before the
end of 2008.

Interestingly, neither Israel nor Hamas have acknowledged
the reality of a ceasefire, tacit or otherwise. However, both
sides have carefully stated that they would refrain from
initiating new hostilities if the other side maintained the
calm. There seems to be a mutual propensity to observe a
period of calm, the duration depending entirely on
circumstances. The term which observers are using to
describe what's happening is tahdia, an Arabic word
meaning calm and caution.

Israeli Defence Minister Barak, who has been accused of
masterminding the latest escalation for political reasons,
namely to enhance his chances for becoming Israel's
prime minister, said "the fighting is ongoing, will continue
and will at times increase or decrease."

He added that, "there is not at this point any agreement.
But if today people go to school in Ashkelon without rockets,
I wouldn't propose complaining about any quiet day, but at
any moment in which we need to act, we will." A senior
government official reiterated, "if the rocket fire stops completely,
so will IDF operations in Gaza."

For Hamas's part, its spokesman Sami Abu Zhuri pointed
out that, "no comprehensive ceasefire had been reached."
He added though that Hamas leaders were welcoming
Egyptian efforts to secure a truce.

Hamas is already viewing the calm as a political and moral
victory, arguing that a certain balance of terror has been
established between Israel, a nuclear superpower, and
Hamas, a small organisation, with a few thousand irregulars
equipped with mostly light weapons.

Hamas also believes that Israel's tacit acceptance of the
de facto ceasefire, however uncertain and short-living it
may be, shows that Israel is abandoning its erstwhile designs
to topple Hamas by way of launching an all-out war on the
Gaza Strip. "Israel has realised that Hamas is a hard number
it can't ignore. I think the Americans and the Europeans are
also coming to this conclusion," said Hamas's spokesman
Mushir Al-Masri.

For its part, the PA leadership in Ramallah, while publicly
welcoming the tacit ceasefire, is voicing some consternation,
having been sidelined by the latest events.

PA President Mahmoud Abbas has been quoted as saying that
he is sure an Egyptian-mediated deal with Hamas has been
struck according to which Hamas would halt rocket firing on
Israel in return for an Israeli commitment to refrain from
targeting Hamas political leaders.

Hamas scoffed at the "insinuations" and "bad-mouthing",
reminding Abbas that Hamas's leaders and their sons have
always been at the forefront of the struggle against the
Israeli occupation.

Palestinian political commentators generally believe that the
tahdia in Gaza, along with America's ostensible failure to make
a civil administration out of the Palestinian Authority in the
West Bank, is actually good news for Palestinian national unity
and the prospects of a serious rapprochement between Fatah
and Hamas.

"I think the PA leadership is discovering that it will be futile to
count on the Bush administration to pressure Israel to end the
occupation that started in 1967," said Palestinian political
commentator Hani Al-Masri.

He told the Weekly that the Palestinian leadership is now
realising that there is a vast gap between the realities that
Israel wants to impose through coercion on the ground, and
what the Palestinians want, namely an end to the occupation
and the creation of a viable state on all of the occupied territories.

"It is very clear that the utmost Israel is willing to give for
peace will not be accepted by the most moderate Palestinian
leader. Hence, Abbas and Fatah are reconsidering their
previous calculations. They simply can't give the US the
benefit of the doubt, although they wouldn't say this publicly."

It is actually no secret that Abbas feels that he is losing in
terms of public support as Palestinians have come to realise more
than at any other time that Israel only understands the language
of brute force and that had it not been for the Jerusalem attack
on Thursday, Israel would have kept up its murderous onslaught
on the Gaza Strip.

What is more important though is the growing realisation in
Abbas's immediate circle that Israel is not really taking him,
not to mention the entire peace process, seriously and that the
American-sponsored peace talks are futile.

This week, Israel announced fresh plans to built 1,150 settler
units on occupied Arab land in East Jerusalem. In addition,
Israel has begun issuing land deeds to Jews in East Jerusalem
for real estate belonging to the Islamic Waqf and Palestinian
absentees. The measure has been condemned by Palestinian
leaders in Jerusalem and Ramallah as "a brazen falsification"
and "legalisation of theft". "They confiscate the land unilaterally,
give land rights to Jews unilaterally, and determine their borders
unilaterally and then they claim they want peace," said PLO
official Yasser Abd Rabbo.

The PA has already appealed to the international community,
especially the US and Europe, to force Israel to stop the
new settlement expansion drive in the West Bank. To be
sure, criticisms have been issued from some Western capitals.
However, these criticisms will force Israel to cancel or even
suspend the planned expansion. A retreat on such a vital
issue by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert could lead to
the break-up of his fragile coalition.

Shas, the ultra-Orthodox religious party representing Jews
from the Middle East, has already threatened to withdraw
from the coalition if Olmert gives in to external pressure.

Abbas faces an even harder dilemma. If he returns to the
talks with Olmert, without an agreement to scrap or at least
freezing the latest settlement drive, he will lose not only face,
but whatever popularity he still enjoys among his people.