Friday, January 11

Bush's Mideast Pipe Dream

Pierre Heumann

The American president came to the Middle East
in an attempt to deliver peace. Instead, George W.
Bush's visit to the Holy Land has only deepened
the divide between the Israelis and Palestinians.

US President George W. Bush is an optimist.
That's why he's visiting the Middle East this
week in order to speed up the peace process that
he started in Annapolos at the end of 2007.

He wants to use the 12 months left to him in the
White House to solve the 60-year-old Middle East
conflict, he says, and he gushes bravely about a
two-state solution -- with Israel and Palestine living
in harmony, side by side.

But during his visit, which ends Friday, he has
achieved exactly the opposite. Instead of bridging
the divide between the Israelis and the Palestinians,
he has made it wider. Neither has he accelerated the
peace process. Instead, he has merely managed to make
it more difficult. On the red carpet that was laid out for
him in the Holy Land, he has managed to bury the
Palestinian state before it was even born.

Take, for example, what Bush said at a joint press
conference with President Mahmoud Abbas in
Ramallah on Thursday: The US president promised
the Palestinians their own state within a year. He said
he was convinced that a peace accord would be signed
before the end of his term in January 2009.

Speaking at Abbas' side, Bush said that he was confident
that "with proper help, the state of Palestine will emerge.
" Sources close to the negotiations said that Bush had
offered to visit the region again if this was required to
give the peace process fresh impetus. And the White
House also announced on Thursday that Bush had
named Lt. Gen. William Fraser as his envoy to
monitor the Israeli-Palestinian "road map" peace plan.

But Bush has expectations that cannot be
fulfilled in the madness of the Middle East;
in fact, they just come across as naïve. He appears
to assume that some kind of inner compulsion to find
a harmonious solution to conflicts must exist --
a view that is not supported by history.

But the Bush visit has shown once again with painful
clarity how intractable the conflict really is.
The antagonisms are too complex. Simply
managing the conflict with any degree of
efficiency must count by itself as a success.

But even that will be difficult as long as the
Palestinian territories remain divided. President
Mahmoud Abbas lost the Gaza Strip this summer
and now only controls the West Bank. Gaza is like
another planet where he has hardly any influence.
Abbas, always a weak leader, is now impotent. Even
within his own Fatah party, the number of those loyal
to him has shrunk and the population has little respect
for him. Without the support of the Israeli military, it
is likely that Hamas could also have overthrown Fatah
and Abbas in the West Bank.

By pointing out Abbas' shortcomings in public, Bush
has made him even weaker. There were admittedly
friendly words when Abbas received Bush in Ramallah
on Thursday. In order to avoid offending Bush, Abbas
even eschewed the Russian fur hat he usually wears
when it is cold.

But Abbas is not in a position to fulfill the great
expectations that Bush has placed on his shoulders.
Since the summer putsch by Hamas in the Gaza Strip
when Abbas lost much of his power, the radical Islamists
have been steadily building and securing their power
in Gaza. All the important functions -- from the police
chief through the teachers and up to the most senior
judges -- are now occupied by Hamas. For Abbas,
this means there can be no return to Gaza. The division
of the Palestinian territories in two is irreversible.

A helpless Abbas has demanded that Hamas undo
the coup, saying that only then is he prepared to talk
with them. But he knows better than anyone that he
shouldn't hold his breath waiting for Hamas to give up power.

Even as Abbas rhapsodizes about peace, Qassam rockets
are being fired towards southern Israel from the
Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip every day. Everyone
knows that Abbas has little power to change that, even
if he wants to. But that doesn't stop Bush from holding him
accountable. So long as Gaza remains a refuge for terrorists,
he says, it will be difficult to conceive of any serious
peace talks. "As to the rockets, my first question is going to
be to President Abbas, 'what do you intend to do about them?'
" Bush said this week, responding to a journalist's question.

And Bush's advice to his host Abbas -- that he should
present the people of Gaza with a vision --
was practically grotesque. Then, he argued,
they would make the "right" choice -- in other words,
choose Abbas over chaos. But did Bush really think
free elections in a radical Islamist dictatorship would
be a realistic possibility? And not even Bush can know
how Abbas is supposed to make visions reality in a
swath of land in which he is powerless and is neither
capable nor willing to fight for his ideas.

Even if Abbas were to seek active dialogue with
Hamas in an attempt to convince those in power
and the populace of the correctness of his policies,
Bush (and Olmert) would be the first to shout "treason"
and remind him that he shouldn't be talking with an
organization that is listed as a terrorist group.

What most Palestinians already feared was confirmed
during Bush's visit: That the US president is expecting
greater concessions from them than from Israel, and that
they shouldn't expect the American president to propose
any even-handed solutions. Even the demand that the
Israeli government clear settlements on the West Bank
seemed almost sheepish, as though Bush was
trying to avoid making waves.

Pierre Heumann is the Middle East correspondent for the Swiss weekly Weltwoche.
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