What If NATO Is Defeated In Afghanistan?
-- Amazing as it sounds, NATO, the world’s most powerful military alliance, may be losing the only war the 61-year old pact every fought. All its soldiers, heavy bombers, tanks, helicopter gunships, armies of mercenaries, and electronic gear are being beaten by a bunch of lightly-armed Afghan farmers and mountain tribesmen.
This weekend in Lisbon, NATO’s 28 members face deepening differences over the Afghanistan War as public opinion in the United States, Canada and Europe continue to turn against the conflict.
President Barack Obama again painfully showed he is not fully in charge of US foreign policy. His pledge to begin withdrawing some US troops from Afghanistan next July has been brazenly – even scornfully - contradicted by US generals and strongly opposed by resurgent Congressional Republicans. Hardly anyone believes the president’s withdrawal date.
Obama is fresh from groveling before Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. He pleaded with Israel’s leader to impose a short, token freeze on settlement building in exchange for a multi-billion dollar bribe from Washington of advanced US F-35 stealth warplanes, promises of UN vetoes, and raising the value of US arms stockpiled for Israel’s use to $1 billion. Rarely has a US president crawled so low.
Israel will likely take Obama’s bribe, with more sweeteners, but not before rubbing his face in the dirt to show who really runs US Mideast policy and as a warning not to mess with Israel. The last US president to challenge Israel’s colonization of the West Bank, George H. W. Bush, was ousted in 1992 after one term.
Obama appears to want out of the Afghan War. His final gamble of sending 30,000 more troops into the $7.5 billion monthly war has so far failed to produce the hoped-for decisive victory. But powerful pro-war groups, including the Pentagon, the arms industry and Republicans, are thwarting the weakened Obama’s attempts to wind down the war.
US, Canadian and European politicians who backed the Afghan War fear admitting the conflict was a huge waste of lives and treasure. Their political careers hang in the balance.
Canada’s prime minister, who is trying to assume the former role of Britain’s Tony Blair as Washington’s most obedient ally, just announced 900 Canadian soldiers will remain in Afghanistan after his own pullout date, ostensibly for "training."
That, of course, is the new euphemism for staying on as a permanent garrison to keep the Afghan client regime in power. "Training," as with US forces in Iraq, really means the old British Raj’s native troops under white officers.
Canadian journalists who opposed continuation of the Afghan War, or exposed many of the lies that justify it, have been purged from their newspapers under pressure from the Harper government – which claims, ironically, to be fighting in Afghanistan for "democracy."
While the US heads deeper into war and debt, its European allies are fed up with what was supposed to have been a limited "police action" to eliminate al-Qaida bases.
Instead, Europe got a full-scale war against Afghanistan’s Pashtun tribes raising uneasy memories of its 19th-century colonial "pacifications."
France’s new defense minister, Alain Juppé, openly called the Afghan conflict a "trap" for NATO and called for an exit strategy. He is quite right.
By contrast, British Defense Chief Gen. Sir David Richards, warned, "NATO now needs to plan for a 30 or 40 year role." In short, permanent occupation. That may be the bottom line, at least for the imperial camp. Central Asia’s resources are the real reason.
The US-installed Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, is demanding the US scale back military operations and night raids that inflict heavy civilian casualties. Washington counters that Karzai is mentally unstable. He is marked to be overthrown once Washington can find a suitable Pashtun replacement.
America’s rational for invading Afghanistan was to destroy al-Qaida. But CIA chief Leon Panetta recently admitted there were no more than 50 al-Qaida operatives left in Afghanistan. The rest – no more than few hundred - fled to Pakistan years ago.
So what are 110,000 US troops and 40,000 NATO troops doing in Afghanistan? Certainly not nation-building. Most reports show Afghanistan is in worse poverty and distress than before the US invasion.
While the platitudes and synthetic optimism flowed thick at Lisbon, giant US Army bulldozers, demolition teams and artillery were busy leveling wide swathes of Afghan homes around the Pashtun stronghold, Kandahar. In 2006, US Marines conducted a similar ruthless campaign to crush the rebellious Iraqi city of Falluja.
The US is using the same punitive tactics in Afghanistan and Iraq as Israel employs on the occupied West Bank: targeted assassinations, death squads, demolishing buildings and whole neighborhoods to punish and open fields of fire. In fact, the US military has often been guided by Israeli advisors in such operations.
Destroying large parts of Kandahar is a sign of growing US frustration and a sense the war is being lost. It certainly won’t win hearts and minds of the locals, the stated goal of US proconsul Gen. David Petraeus.
Like the rest of the Pentagon, Petraeus is determined that the mighty US military must not be defeated by Afghan tribesmen. The humiliation would be intolerable. Defeat in Afghanistan would bring demands for major cuts in the bloated US military, a Leviathan that consumes 50% of world military spending.
Washington’s so-called national security establishment (in Britain they used to be called "imperialists") also fears failure in Afghanistan threatens to undermine the entire NATO alliance.
Europe is slowly re-emerging as a world power, however fitfully and painfully. NATO has been the primary tool of US geopolitical control of Western Europe since the late 1940’s. The Japan-US security pact has played the same role in north Asia.
The loss of the Afghan War by the US and its reluctant allies will call into question the reason for the alliance and likely hasten Europe building an integrated military independent of US control. America’s grip on Western Europe would be ended.
That is why Afghanistan so unnerves Washington’s right wingers. The defeat of Soviet armies in Afghanistan in 1989 began the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Could the same fate be in store for the American Raj?
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2010 - http://www.ericmargolis.com/
Nato's Europe-wide missile defence system is not a 'proxy' protection for Israel.
| Ankara wants to make sure that Nato's Europe-wide missile defence system is not a 'proxy' protection for Israel. |
"We are categorically opposed to have a country named [as a threat] and our request appears to have been accepted," he told reporters before leaving Ankara, the Turkish capital.
"Turkey cannot join a project that is aimed at a specific country," Gul said, stressing that Nato was a defensive alliance aimed at defending its members against any ballistic threat and is not an organisation designed "to intimidate and threaten".
"The project must cover all [Nato] members without exception ... It will not be aimed at Iran, we said it," the Turkish president said, adding that Ankara hoped that its request will be endorsed by other Nato allies at the summit.
Leaders of the 28-member organisation, who are holding talks in the capital of Portugal on Friday and Saturday, were set to endorse plans to launch the new missile shield on Friday.
Diplomats said there had been intense debate in the run-up to the summit about whether Iran should be targeted as a specific threat in the public document they adopt.
The US has asked Turkey, a Nato-member, to host some of the radar defences and to approve the proposal for a Europe-wide defense network.
Turkey is mindful of its delicate position with neighbouring Iran and has said it will refuse to sign a Nato document that names Iran as the threat in the final declaration.
Israel condition
Anita McNaught, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Istanbul, said: "The compromise that Nato seems to have arrived at, even ahead of this meeting, is that no countries will be cited and the stress will be on this being a defensive system and not an offensive one.
"[Turkey has] worked extremely hard in this region to deal with the perception of threat among its neighbours, to de-escalate the sense of jeopardy and danger and defensiveness and offensiveness ... that has caused so many problems.
"It doesn't want the Nato defence shield to ramp this whole process up again."
McNaught said that Turkey also wanted to make sure that the system would in no way be used to protect Israel from attack.
She said: "It [Turkey] wants to be clear that this system is for the defence of territories from Turkey's eastern border, westward. It wants to be sure this is not a 'proxy' defence system for Israel.
"It does not want any of the intelligence gathered through this system to be shared with Israel."
Discussing the shield plan earlier this week, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato secretary-general, said that there was "no reason to name specific countries [as a threat]".
"The fact is that more than 30 countries have, or are aspiring to get missile technologies with a range sufficient to hit targets in the Euro-Atlantic area," he said.
Nato wants to link existing or future national missile defence systems to create an umbrella that would protect all of Europe's population and territory, at a cost of less than $273m, officials say.
Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, who will attend the summit on Saturday has fought against the missile shield as a menace to his country's own nuclear deterrence.
Analysts say Nato leaders plan to defuse this opposition by inviting Russia to join the defence shield, extending its protection across Russian territory.
Afghanistan: "Is there a moral case for targeted killing?," By Paul Robinson, Windsor Star, June 11, 2008
Ed Corrigan
| Is there a moral case for targeted killing?
Wednesday, June 11, 2008 According to the United Nations, death squads acting on orders from, and with the direct support of, NATO forces are carrying out "gratuitous civilian killings" in Afghanistan today. In a preliminary report issued recently, the UN special rapporteur on illegal killings, Philip Alston, complains that foreign forces "are wandering around conducting dangerous raids that too often result in killings without anyone taking responsibility." His examples include an attack by U.S. special forces which killed two brothers whom Afghan officials say had no links to the Taliban, and a "botched raid" by British soldiers who slit the throat of an Afghan man. At a meeting I attended in April in Ottawa, the new commander of Canada's forces in Afghanistan, Brig.-Gen. Dennis Thompson, announced he could not say what Canadian special forces are doing in that country, but whatever it is, it is "very precise." Outgoing Chief of the Defence Staff, Gen. Rick Hillier, later amplified, telling Legion magazine, "What we want to do is take out the commanders who are engaged in orchestrating, facilitating, paying, leading, planning and driving folks to attack us or attack the Afghans or attack the innocent. And our special forces are focused very much on that. ... I said, during a recent speech, that we had removed from the battlefield six commanders who were responsible for the deaths of 21 Canadian soldiers. Well that's changed. We've removed seven commanders who have been responsible for the deaths of 27 soldiers." As they say in the British Army, you don't need the brains of an archbishop to work out what the generals' words mean. The only logical interpretation would seem to be that the Canadian Joint Task Force is carrying out a campaign of targeted killings in Afghanistan, assassinating Taliban officers in their homes or elsewhere. If this is the case, it is a policy which has gone unnoticed by the media. Yet such methods are legally and ethically controversial, and their effectiveness is unproven. The practice of assassinating suspected insurgents or terrorists whom it is too difficult to capture or put on trial is nothing new. During the War on Terror, the United States has assassinated numerous alleged enemies, most recently with the killing on May 1 of the Somali militia leader Aden Hashi Ayro, along with 10 other Somalis. The first problem with this tactic is that the people being killed have not been convicted of any crime. Justifying the killing requires accepting that one is operating not in a law-enforcement environment, but rather in a state of war. That, however, carries with it a whole series of legal ramifications, such as the granting of prisoner of war status to captured enemies, which, to date, no NATO members have been willing to accept. The second problem is an ethical one. Targeted killings fail the test of the categorical imperative: Is this an activity one would wish to be universally practised? Let us imagine that during the 1980s the Indian government had decided that it wished to eliminate Sikh terrorists based in Canada, and had chosen to slit the throats of suspects living in Vancouver. Or let us imagine that the current Sri Lankan government were to launch missiles at Canadians suspected of links to Tamil terrorists. The only way of overriding this objection is by recourse to consequentialist reasoning, and the argument that the consequences of targeted killing are so positive that they take priority in moral reasoning. This is a difficult case to make, as there appear to be no reliable data to support the proposition that targeted killing is an effective method of defeating insurgents. (Some academics have examined the use of targeted killings by the Israelis, but their work is primarily impressionistic in nature, and they do not for the most part use verifiable statistics to correlate the assassinations to rises and falls in terrorist activity.) There is, however, a heavy political price. As any student of counter-insurgency will know, in this type of conflict the primary battle is political, not military, in nature. The aim of all action must be to enhance the legitimacy of the government. Thus, the primary question one must ask about everything NATO does in Afghanistan is, "does it enhance the legitimacy of the Afghan government?" Targeted killings do not. On the contrary, they underline the fact that the indigenous government is incapable of arresting and trying suspected criminals using due process. Worse still, the fact that these killings are being conducted by foreigners strengthens the impression that the regime lacks real power. The practice is therefore more likely to undermine support for the state than to reinforce it. This has certainly been the result elsewhere. For instance, so-called "shoot-to-kill" policies pursued in Northern Ireland in the 1970s by British security forces, and later by Protestant paramilitaries, reinforced impressions among Catholics that the British state's authority was illegitimate.. At present, Prof. Alston notes, "the level of complacency in response to these killings is staggeringly high ... they (international military forces) have not taken the steps which are necessary to ensure a degree of transparency and accountability." He calls the deaths "completely unacceptable" and "outside the law." Let us hope that Brig.-Gen. Thompson's "precise" operations are more carefully calibrated, and will not feature in Prof. Alston's full report, which will be released this autumn. Paul Robinson is an associate professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa. This column first appeared in the Ottawa Citizen. |
Europeans see what America cannot And Canada along for the ride
"If impassioned claims by U.S. and Canadian politicians that the little Afghanistan war must by won at all costs, then why don't they stop orating, impose conscription, and send 400,000 soldiers, including their own sons, to fight in Afghanistan? Of course they won't. They prefer to waste their own soldiers, and grind up Afghanistan, rather than admit this war against 40 million Pashtun tribesmen was a terrible mistake that will only get worse."At this week's NATO conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, an angry U.S. Secretary of Defence Robert Gates accused some Europeans of not being prepared to "fight and die" in Afghanistan in the battle against the Taliban.
The undiplomatic Gates is quite right. Most Europeans regard the Afghan conflict as a) wrong and immoral; b) America's war; c) all about oil; or d) probably lost.
To many Europeans, the NATO alliance was created to deter the real threat of Soviet aggression, not to supply foot soldiers for George Bush's wars in the Muslim world.
While Gates and the Harper government were pleading for more troops, the commander of the 40,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan, U.S. Gen. Dan McNeill, landed a bombshell. If proper U.S. military counter-insurgency doctrine were followed, McNeill admitted, the U.S. and NATO would need 400,000 troops to defeat Pashtun tribal resistance in Afghanistan.
When the Soviets occupied Afghanistan, they deployed 160,000 troops and about 200,000 Afghan Communist troops -- yet failed to crush the mostly Pashtun resistance. Now, the U.S. and NATO are trying the same mission with only 66,000 troops, backed by local mercenaries grandly styled the Afghan National Army.
Canada's calls for 1,000 more NATO troops, and the U.S. decision to send 3,200 marines, will not alter the course of this war, which is turning increasingly against the western occupiers. In fact, the war is spreading into neighbouring Pakistan, a nation of 165 million, stretching U.S. and NATO forces ever thinner.
A primary reason for Gates's recent call for U.S. troops to begin attacking pro-Taliban Pashtun tribesmen inside Pakistan is due to their growing attacks on allied supply lines to Afghanistan.
As this column has reported, over 70% of U.S./NATO supplies come in by truck through Pakistan's tribal belt known as FATA, including all of their oil and gas. Attacks by pro-Taliban tribesmen against these vulnerable supply lines are jeopardizing western military operations inside Afghanistan.
HUNTERS NOW HUNTED
The hunters are becoming the hunted. Cutting off invaders' supply lines is a time-honoured Pashtun military tactic. They used it against Alexander the Great, the British and Soviets, and are at it again.
What angry Gates fails to see is that by pushing NATO into a distant Asian war without political purpose or seeming end, he is endangering the very alliance that is the bedrock of U.S. power in Europe.
Europeans increasingly ask why they need the U.S.-dominated military alliance, a Cold War relic, in which they continue to play foot soldiers to America's atomic knights, to paraphrase the late German statesman, Franz Josef Strauss.
Why does the rich, powerful European Union even need NATO any more? The Soviet threat is gone -- at least for now. Nuclear-armed France and Britain are quite capable of defending Europe against outside threats. Why can't the new European Defence Force take over NATO's role of defending Europe and protecting EU interests?
In short, most Europeans see no benefit in playing junior members in an alliance whose historic time has passed and that serves primarily as an instrument of U.S. power. Washington's sharpest geopolitical thinker, Zbigniew Brzezinski, calls NATO a "stepping stone" the U.S. uses to project power into Europe.
By pushing NATO towards a bridge too far, the Bush administration may end up fatally undermining the alliance and encouraging anti-American forces in Europe.
In fact, it's becoming evident that the cash-strapped U.S. needs the EU more than the EU needs the U.S.
CONSCRIPTION
Final point. If impassioned claims by U.S. and Canadian politicians that the little Afghanistan war must by won at all costs, then why don't they stop orating, impose conscription, and send 400,000 soldiers, including their own sons, to fight in Afghanistan?
Of course they won't. They prefer to waste their own soldiers, and grind up Afghanistan, rather than admit this war against 40 million Pashtun tribesmen was a terrible mistake that will only get worse.

