Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. (24)

Anger and lack of confidence prevails in the Palestinian Street:

While Popularity of Hamas Decreases, and Status of Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmud Abbas Declines, and While the Public Loses Confidence in its Leadership, in Most of the Security Services, and in the Various Armed “Brigades,” Three Quarters Demand Early Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

14-20 June 2007

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip during June 14-20, 2007. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.



Main Findings:

Findings show that the recent infighting has angered most Palestinians and led to a loss of confidence in the leadership and most of the security services. They also show that while a consensus is developing over the need to conduct early parliamentary and presidential elections, the public is split over other alternatives such as the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority and replacing it with an international trusteeship or the establishment of a confederation with Jordan.

*

Satisfaction with the performance of President Mahmud Abbas during the period of infighting does not exceed 13% and satisfaction with his overall performance in general drops from 48% last March to 36% in this poll.
*

Satisfaction with the overall performance of the pervious National Unity Government does not exceed 17% and confidence in the various security services varies between low for the Preventive Security, General Intelligence, Executive Force, and Presidential Guard (ranging between 33% and 37%), and medium for the National Security Forces (48%), al Qassam Brigades (45%), al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades (50%), and the Police (58%).
*

Overwhelming majority (75%) wants holding of early presidential and parliamentary elections today while support for the formation of an emergency government stands at 56% and opposition at 38%. Opposition to the emergency government stands at 47% in the Gaza Strip.
*

If new parliamentary elections are held today, Fateh would receive 43% of the vote, the same percentage it received three months ago in our March survey. But support for Change and Reform (Hamas) drops from 37% three months ago to 33% in this survey. Support for all other third parties combined stands at 12% and 13% remain undecided.
*

If new presidential elections are held today and the only two candidates were Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, 40% would not participate in these elections. Among those who would participate, 49% would vote for Abbas and 42% for Haniyeh. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, non participation would drop to 31%. Among those who would participate, 59% would vote for Marwan Barghouti and 35% for Haniyeh. In the Gaza Strip, Barghouti wins against Haniyeh by 55% to 41%.
*

Both sides, Fateh and Hamas are seen as equally responsible for the infighting in the eyes of 59% while 71% believe the two sides are equally losers
*

90% describe current Palestinian conditions as very bad or bad while only 6% describe them as good or very good. 28% say they want to immigrate to other countries and 23% say they are not proud of being Palestinians.
*

A large percentage (41%) wants the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority but a larger percentage (49%) opposes that. The percentage of those in favor of dissolving the PA is divided among those who want it replaced with international trusteeship (26%) and those who want it replaced with a return to full Israeli occupation (16%).
*

Similarly, 42% support the establishment of a confederation with Jordan while 52% opposes that. The percentage of those in favor the confederation solution is divided among those who want it now (25%) and those who want it only later after the establishment of a Palestinian state (17%).
*

Overwhelming majority of 82% view acts such as the kidnapping of foreigners, the burning of internet cafe’s, and the bombing of foreign schools as criminal deserving condemnation while only 3% view them as nationalistic and deserving support. In the Gaza Strip, 85% view these acts as criminal and 2% as nationalistic.
*

The greatest threat to Palestinians today is infighting and lack of law and order in the eyes of 56% followed by poverty in the eyes of 21%, Israeli occupation (12%) and international sanctions and boycott (10%).
*

After 40% of Israeli occupation, percentage of those who believe that the chances for the creation of an independent Palestinian state are medium or high does not exceed 26% while 70% believe the chances are non existent or low.